International Migration as a Dynamic Process

Abstract

Structures a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push‐pull forces that propel the migratory current. The model’s architecture is based on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination (migrant stock) and a pool of potential emigrants created by socioeconomic conditions prevailing at the origin. The intensity of the ensuing migratory flow is determined by a nexus of mediators functioning in either society and comprising: (a) legal imperatives such as migration laws; (b) economic imperatives measured by the ratio of income‐per‐capita between destination and origin; (c) political imperatives such as war or other forms of compulsion; (d) natural stimulants such as epidemics and climatic extremes; (e) societal conditions such as job‐hierarchy differences and migration network characteristics; and (f) causes other than the ones motivating the pool members, such as the reasons of the so called “brain drain”. The mathematical function representing the collective of these causes is named the mediating factor, and comprises both steady‐state and transient components. While the model’s architecture is independent of any geographic or temporal specificity, the model is capable of portraying the migration flow between any given origin/destination pair, and over any designated historical period: this through the numerical values of the model parameters derived from the historical, demographic, and economic data of the case. Two specific paradigms serve to demonstrate the model’s tenets and pertinence.