Tornado mitigation network analysis and simulation

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to apply network modelling and simulation methods to critically analyse the tornado detection, warning and communication system in the Canadian Prairies. Design/methodology/approach The simulation results of the developed network illustrate the role of collaborating partners and provide a probabilistic representation of the overall time from tornado detection to warning issuance. Furthermore, the total time from the warning issuance to when evacuation is complete is analysed by combining the time distribution of the network and the evacuation time distribution, which is developed based on survey data. Findings A set of recommendations are offered as guidelines for consideration and possible adoption by collaborating partners who are involved at different stages of the detection, warning, communication and evacuation process. Practical implications The research contributes to a deeper understanding of the pre-disaster phase of tornadoes by providing an overall analysis that spans different areas under the general umbrella of disaster mitigation. Social implications This research paper helps the community to work together in developing mitigation measures to enhance social values and benefits. Originality/value This paper shows how activity network modelling and simulation methods, which are normally applied in construction management, can be used to analyse the overall process from tornado detection to the warning issuance.