Comparison of linear and non-linear GARCH models for forecasting volatility of select emerging countries

Abstract

PurposeSeveral empirical studies have proven that emerging countries are attractive destinations for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) because of high expected returns, weak market efficiency and high growth that make them attractive destination for diversification of funds. But higher expected returns come coupled with high risk arising from political and economic instability. This study aims to compare the linear (symmetric) and non-linear (asymmetric) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models in forecasting the volatility of top five major emerging countries among E7, that is, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico.Design/methodology/approachThe volatility of financial markets of five major emerging countries has been empirically investigated for a period of two decades from January 2000 to December 2019 using univariate volatility models including GARCH 1, 1, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH 1, 1) and Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (T-GARCH-1, 1) models. Further, to examine time-varying volatility, the distinctions of structural break have been captured in view of the global financial crisis of 2008. Thus, the period under the study has been segregated into pre- and post-crisis, that is, January 2001–December 2008 and January 2009–December 2019, respectively.FindingsThe findings indicate that GARCH (1, 1) model is superior to non-linear GARCH models for forecasting volatility because the effect of leverage is insignificant. China has been considered as most volatile, whereas India is volatile but positively skewed and Indonesia is the least volatile country. The results can help investors in better international diversification of their portfolio and identifying best suitable hedging opportunities.Practical implicationsThis study can help investors to construct a more risk-adjusted returns international portfolio. Further, it adds to the scant literature available on the inconclusive debate on the choice of linear versus non-linear models to forecast market volatility.Originality/valueEarlier studies related to univariate volatility models are mostly applications of the models. Only few studies have considered the robustness while applying the models. However, none of the studies to the best of the authors’ searches have considered these models for identifying the diversification opportunity among the emerging countries. Hence, this study is able to derive diversification and hedging opportunities by applying wide ranges of the statistical applications and models, that is, descriptive, correlations and univariate volatility models. It makes the study more rigorous and unique compared to the previous literature.