System dynamics model for intra-city multimodal transportation considering behavioral indicators and demand under uncertainty conditions

Abstract

PurposeBy designing a system dynamics model in the form of a multimodal transportation system, this study for the first time seeks to reduce costs and time, and increase customer satisfaction by considering uncertainties in the intra city transit system, especially demand uncertainty and provide a prototype system to prove the capability of the dynamical system.Design/methodology/approachThe paper tried to model the factors affecting the intra city multimodal transportation system by defining different scenarios in the cause-and-effect model. The maps and results developed according to system dynamics modeling principles are discussed.FindingsFour scenarios were considered given the factors affecting the urban transportation system to implement the transportation information system for reducing the material and non-material costs of wrong planning of the intra city transit system. After implementing the scenarios, scenario two was selected under the following conditions: advertising for cultural development, support of authorities by efforts such as street widening to reduce traffic, optimize infrastructure, increase and optimize public transport and etc.Originality/valueThe value of this paper is considering uncertainty in traffic optimization; taking into account behavioral and demand indicators such as cultural promotion, official support, early childhood learning, traffic hours and the impact of traveler social status; investigating the factors affecting the system under investigation and the reciprocal effects of these factors and real-world simulation by considering the factors and effects between them.