Stability in the banking industry and commodity price volatility: perspective from developing economies

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the effect of volatility in prices of internationally traded commodities (the backbone of most economies) on the stability of the banking industry from three main perspectives; bank liquidity reserves, overall bank risk and bank capital adequacy.Design/methodology/approachData were compiled from various sources for 30 emerging economies from 2002 to 2018 and were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments estimation technique.FindingsThe study finds that all things being equal, the magnitude and direction of impact of commodity price volatility on bank stability among economies in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) depend on the type and nature of the commodity in question; and the bank stability proxy used. For instance, an increase in crude oil prices is found to foster stability in the banking industry (proxied by bank liquid reserves) but insignificant when stability in the banking industry is proxied using other banking sector parameters. Additionally, government effectiveness and corruption control have varying moderating influences on how volatility associated with prices of internationally traded commodities influence various proxies for banking industry stability.Originality/valueThis study highlights the effect of fluctuations in prices of key internationally traded commodities (adjusted for foreign exchange impact) that are important sources of revenue among economies in SSA on banking sector stability from liquidity, overall risk and capital adequacy perspectives. The influential role of governance in the relationship between volatility in the price of commodities and bank stability is also revealed by the study.