Divergence or convergence: trade globalization, regulatory and environmental quality in QUAD countries – a robust ARDL and decoupling index inquiry

Abstract

PurposeThe Quadrilateral Group for Security Dialogues (QUAD), comprising Japan, Australia, India, and the USA, has experienced a noteworthy escalation in both environmental depletion and economic performance over the preceding 2 decades. Consequently, it becomes crucial to outline strategies through which the QUAD can attain a harmonious equilibrium between sustainable economic growth and ecological well-being. This research endeavors to dissect the intricate relationships among trade globalization, regulatory quality, and environmental sustainability within the QUAD for the period 1990–2021. The study checks for the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH), and Pollution Halo Effect Hypothesis (PHEH).Design/methodology/approachThe long-run association is based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and bounds test approach to cointegration while divergence or convergence is studied with the help of decoupling index (DI). Results have been verified by applying serial correlation LM test, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH), and cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) tests to ensure the robustness and stability of the model.FindingsThe empirical results of this study affirm the applicability of the PHEH in the contexts of India, Japan, and the USA, whereas the PHH is validated in the case of Australia. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the existence of relative decoupling solely in the case of India. This testifies that the rate of growth of the Indian economy surpasses the rate of growth in ecological footprint (EF), indicating a relative reduction in the intensity of environmental impact per unit of economic growth.Research limitations/implicationsThe empirical findings of our study suggest that countries with effective regulatory systems are better positioned to control and mitigate the potential adverse environmental effects resulting from increased global trade. Thus, policymakers are prompted to reassess the development policies for sustainable economic growth that will minimize adverse environmental repercussions. The implication of the negative relation between urbanization and EF is paramount for policymakers in developing countries seeking strategies for balanced urban development that aligns with environmental sustainability.Originality/valueThe present study is a unique exploration of the impact of trade globalization and regulatory quality on EF, specifically on PHH/PHEH in the context of QUAD.