Modeling the strategies to accelerate the natural gas business market growth in a developing country

Abstract

Purpose Rising energy demand and the quest for achieving climate change targets have been pushing emerging markets like India to bolster the natural gas share in their energy mix. The country has set an aggressive target of increasing natural gas share in the energy mix to 15% by 2030. The purpose of this study is to acknowledge the need for adopting and developing strategies for natural gas business market development to ensure a reliable supply at an affordable price. Hence, this study explores the natural gas market business development strategies and assesses them through cause/effect analysis. Design/methodology/approach This study proposed an integrated framework based on the Grey concept and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to assess and determine the interdependence among the natural gas business market development strategies by cause-and-effect group analysis. The application of Grey theory reduced the uncertainty and subjectivity involved in the decision-making process. Later, sensitivity analysis is also performed to check the robustness of the framework. Findings The natural gas business market development strategies are identified through a systematic literature search and contributions from industry experts. The findings of this study highlight the importance of developing pipeline and storage infrastructure facilities, ensuring supply security through long-term imports and overseas investment, implementing free-market-based pricing, simplification and standardization of regulatory processes at state and national levels, etc., for the development of the natural gas market development in India. Research limitations/implications This study acknowledges the natural gas market development strategies and evaluated them into cause-and-effect groups which are limited to Indian context. All evaluations in the Grey-based DEMATEL method were made in this study based on the decision team inputs which limits the generalization to other geographies. Moreover, the opinions of the experts can be subjective and differ. The selection of the experts is done through non-probability sampling process. Practical implications This study could support the government and decision-makers in formulating the appropriate strategies to develop the domestic natural gas market. The cause-and-effect relationships are helpful for the companies, management, government, regulators and other stakeholders to understand the criticality of the causal strategies that must be implemented for developing the favorable natural gas business market scenario. Originality/value This study explores and evaluates the strategies that successfully bolster the natural gas business demand in India using Grey-based DEMATEL framework. By focusing on those critical strategies, relevant stakeholders would ensure a reliable natural gas supply at affordable prices.