Multicriteria reliability modeling and optimisation of a complex system with dual failure modes and high initial reliability

Abstract

Purpose System reliability optimisation in today’s world is critical to ensuring customer satisfaction, businesses competitiveness, secure and uninterrupted delivery of services and safety of operations. Among many systems configurations, complex systems are the most difficult to model for reliability optimisation. The purpose of this paper is to assess the performance of a novel optimisation methodology of the authors, developed to address the difficulties in the context of a gas carrying system (GCS) exhibiting dual failure modes and high initial reliability. Design/methodology/approach The minimum cut sets involving components of the system were obtained using the fault tree approach, and their reliability constituted into criteria which were maximised and the associated cost of improving their reliabilities minimised. Pareto optimal generic components and system reliabilities were subsequently obtained. Findings The results indicate that the optimisation methodology could improve the system’s reliability even from an initially high one, granted that the feasibility factor for improving a component’s reliability was very high. The results obtained, in spite of the size (41 objective functions and 18 decision variables), the complexity (dual failure modes) and the high initial reliability values provide confidence in the optimisation model and methodology and demonstrate their applicability to systems exhibiting multiple failure modes. Research limitations/implications The GCS was assumed either failed or operational, its parameters precisely determined, and non-repairable. The components failure rates were exponentially distributed and failure modes independent. A single weight vector representing expression of preference in which components reliabilities were weighted higher than cost was used due to the stability of the optimisation model to weight variations. Practical implications The high initial reliability values imply that reliability improvement interventions may not be a critical requirement for the GCS. The high levels could be sustained through planned and systematic inspection and maintenance activities. Even so, purely from an analytical stand point, the results nevertheless show that there was some room for reliability improvement however marginal that is. The improvement may be secured by: use of components with comparable levels of reliability to those achieved; use of redundancy techniques to achieve the desired levels of improvement in reliability; or redesigning of the components. Originality/value The novelty of this work is in the use of a reliability optimisation model and methodology that focuses on a system’s minimum cut sets as criteria to be optimised in order to optimise the system’s reliability, and the specific application to a complex system exhibiting dual failure modes and high component reliabilities.