A Physical Basis of Predicting the Magnitude and Failure Time of a Forthcoming Earthquake

Abstract

Let T and M be, respectively, the precursor time of a certain precursor and the magnitude of a forthcoming earthquake. Observations may lead to a relationship of T versus M in a form of log(T)=a+bM. In this study, we will explore the intrinsic physics of the log(T)−M relationship. Based on the log(T)−M relationships of two different precursors from observed data, we propose a method of predicting the magnitude and failure time of a forthcoming earthquake. A testing example based on the log(T)−M relationships inferred from the data of presiemic radon concentration anomalies and gamma-ray emission changes observed at respective monitoring stations in Taiwan is given in this study. Results confirm a high possibility of predicting the magnitude and failure time of a forthcoming earthquake just from the observed occurrence times of two different precursors based on their log(T)−M relationships.