Monitoring magma migration at Mt. Etna using the Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis method

Abstract

The Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis method (SARA) was applied to data recorded six days before the May 13, 2008 eruption of Mt. Etna to test its potential as a forecasting attribute. By using this method, the magma migration path, as well as the seismic migration, can be determined with the amplitude of continuous data recorded at least at one pair of stations from a seismic network near the eruption site. Due to the sudden changes in the seismic amplitude ratio calculated for each pair of stations, the seismic migration trend, as well as the magma path at depths, were detected before the main eruption. The start and end times of the seismic swarms were also determined. The standard practice to achieve similar results is to use volcanic tremors, which must be pre-selected thus reducing efficiency and increasing the time needed. By using the whole seismic signal, the method provides a simpler semi-automated alternative, especially for a seismic event or places where it is not possible to record tremors continuously. This simple method is useful to reduce uncertainties relative to hazardous magma propagation during volcanic unrest, as it helps improve the accuracy of locating seismic swarms and determining the direction of magma movement at depth before the eruption. We also analyzed the amplitude ratio trend using Mann-Kendall and Sen's estimator test. The results of these tests confirmed a positive and increasing trend from the day before the eruption in most pairs of stations.