Financial Interrelations of scenario Indicators of budget Forecasting with Indicators of the Federal budget of Russia

Abstract

The realism of the scenario indicators used in the formation of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in the context of the special significance of the budgetary mechanism for the adaptation of the national economy to global challenges becomes of particular importance while maintaining internal and external sanctions risks. The purpose of this study is to assess the validity of the forecast values of scenario macroeconomic indicators that determine the key characteristics of the Russian federal budget in the current budget cycle, and to develop proposals for clarifying the composition and concretizing approaches to their forecasting for the medium term in conditions of increased uncertainty. The study is based on an abstract-logical method, including a critical analysis of the predictive values of macro-indicators adopted as the basis for the parameters of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2023 and the planned period of 2024 and 2025 (using the level of consumer prices and the exchange rate of the ruble as an example), establishing causal relationships between the reliability of projected budget parameters at the federal level and the state of the Russian economy, identifying possible directions for the development of approaches to forecasting initial indicators for the preparation of the federal budget. In particular, the article suggests that in the forecasting of basic scenario parameters to detail the accounting for the dynamics of world prices, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble, to optimize the selection of exchange rate factors, and to take into account the variability of exchange rate volatility. The author’s developments presented in the article contribute to the efficiency of the execution of the federal budget in terms of the use of its resources, and therefore can be used in the activities of state authorities in the development of budget policy.