Analysis of Household Income Dynamics in the Russia Based on the RLMS Database

Abstract

The goal of the study is to estimate the parameters of the stochastic wage process using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of Higher School of Economics (RLMS-HSE). The main method of analysis is econometric estimation, which includes two steps. In the first step, the authors estimated a Mincer-type regression. In the second step, they estimated the parameters of the stochastic wage process using the generalized method of moments. As a result, the autoregression coefficient turned out to be lower, and the variance of shocks was higher than in similar foreign studies. The results of the research allow to conclude that labor incomes in Russia are less stable over time and are marked by great uncertainty. The practical value of the work lies in the possibility of using the obtained estimates when calibrating general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents, which is demonstrated in the framework of estimation of macroeconomic effects from hypothetical tax maneuvers based on the canonical model with heterogeneous agents.