Economic and Mathematical Models and Tools Development for Forecasting the Level of Attractiveness of Russian Cities

Abstract

The subject of the research is the factors influencing the attractiveness of Russian cities for the population, business and tourism. The objects of the research via economic and mathematical methods are the cities of the Russian Federation with population over 100 thousand people and the parameters of their social-economic development. The purpose of the research is economic and mathematical modeling of the attractiveness change level of Russian cities. In the course of the research a system of regressive equations has been formed, and a corresponding dispersion analysis has been conducted. As the factors influencing the attractiveness of cities for people the authors detected the following ones: the number of residents, housing, payroll rate, crime rate, and medical service density. To evaluate the attractiveness of cities for businesses the authors study the production volume, the volume of retail trade turnover, and the number of people living in the city. On the whole, the regression equations obtained meet the case and can be used henceforward with the aim of forecasting the change of indicators under study. Functional blocks of tools for monitoring and forecasting attractiveness levels of cities are proposed. The key ones are the blocks of forming the task, creating scenarios, forecasting, information analysis, regions rating forming, results visualization. It is concluded that being an integral system, models of cities’ attractiveness for people, business and tourism supplement each other and make it possible to fulfill a comprehensive approach to solving the problem. The results obtained can be used by the authorities in order to solve problems concerning integrated territorial development of the Russian Federation.