Two centuries of biodiversity discovery and loss in Singapore

Author:

Chisholm Ryan A.1ORCID,Kristensen Nadiah P.1,Rheindt Frank E.1ORCID,Chong Kwek Yan2ORCID,Ascher John S.1,Lim Kelvin K. P.3,Ng Peter K. L.3ORCID,Yeo Darren C. J.13ORCID,Meier Rudolf14ORCID,Tan Heok Hui3ORCID,Giam Xingli5ORCID,Yeoh Yi Shuen2,Seah Wei Wei2,Berman Laura M.1ORCID,Tan Hui Zhen1ORCID,Sadanandan Keren R.16ORCID,Theng Meryl17,Jusoh Wan F. A.18ORCID,Jain Anuj910ORCID,Huertas Blanca11ORCID,Tan David J. X.112ORCID,Ng Alicia C. R.1,Teo Aloysius1,Yiwen Zeng113,Cho Tricia J. Y.1ORCID,Sin Y. C. Keita1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117558, Singapore

2. Singapore Botanic Gardens, National Parks Board, Singapore 259569, Singapore

3. Lee Kong Chian Natural History Museum, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117377, Singapore

4. Center for Integrative Biodiversity Discovery, Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Museum für Naturkunde, Berlin 10115, Germany

5. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996

6. Evolution of Sensory Systems Research Group, Max Planck Institute for Biological Intelligence, Seewiesen 82319, Germany

7. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia

8. School of Science, Monash University Malaysia, Subang Jaya 47500, Malaysia

9. Nature Society (Singapore), Singapore 389466, Singapore

10. bioSEA Pte Ltd., Singapore 679521, Singapore

11. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom

12. Department of Biology and Museum of Southwestern Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131

13. Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117546, Singapore

Abstract

There is an urgent need for reliable data on the impacts of deforestation on tropical biodiversity. The city-state of Singapore has one of the most detailed biodiversity records in the tropics, dating back to the turn of the 19th century. In 1819, Singapore was almost entirely covered in primary forest, but this has since been largely cleared. We compiled more than 200 y of records for 10 major taxonomic groups in Singapore (>50,000 individual records; >3,000 species), and we estimated extinction rates using recently developed and novel statistical models that account for “dark extinctions,” i.e., extinctions of undiscovered species. The estimated overall extinction rate was 37% (95% CI [31 to 42%]). Extrapolating our Singapore observations to a future business-as-usual deforestation scenario for Southeast Asia suggests that 18% (95% CI [16 to 22%]) of species will be lost regionally by 2100. Our extinction estimates for Singapore and Southeast Asia are a factor of two lower than previous estimates that also attempted to account for dark extinctions. However, we caution that particular groups such as large mammals, forest-dependent birds, orchids, and butterflies are disproportionately vulnerable.

Funder

James S. McDonnell Foundation

Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 1

Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 2

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference54 articles.

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4. P. K. L. Ng, R. T. Corlett, H. T. W. Tan, Singapore Biodiversity: An Encyclopedia of the Natural Environment and Sustainable Development (Didier Millet, Singapore, 2011).

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