Atmospheric modeling and source reconstruction of radioactive ruthenium from an undeclared major release in 2017

Abstract

In October 2017 unusual106Ru detections across most of Europe prompted the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN) to analyze the event in order to locate the origin and identify the magnitude of the release. This paper presents the inverse modeling techniques used during the event to achieve this goal. The method is based on a variational approach and consists of using air concentration measurements with the ldX long-range dispersion model included in the IRSN’s C3X operational platform. The method made it possible to quickly identify the southern Urals as the most likely geographical origin of the release. Despite uncertainties regarding the starting date of the release, calculations show that it potentially began on 23 September, while most of the release was emitted on 26 September. Among the nuclear plants identified in the southern Urals, the Mayak complex is that from which the dispersion of the106Ru plume is most consistent with observations. The reconstructed106Ru source term from Mayak is ∼250 TBq. In total, it was found that for 72% of the measurements simulated and observed air concentration agreed within a factor of 5. In addition, the simulated deposition of106Ru agrees with the observed deposition. Outside the southern Urals, the simulations indicate that areas with highest deposition values are located in southern Scandinavia and southeastern Bulgaria and are explained by rainfall events occurring while the plume was passing over.