The narrowing of literature use and the restricted mobility of papers in the sciences

Abstract

SignificanceA narrower range of literature is being read as citations are concentrating more on top papers. This is a long-standing trend, present since 1970. Citation concentration may lead to a less flexible scholarly communication system, whereby novel findings have a harder time resurfacing. In line with this argument, the popularity of a paper is more predictable today based on its previous citation impact. I present a mechanism of cumulative advantage that links increased concentration to the restricted mobility of papers. Citations are more dispersed from the 1990s, in the sense that papers are more likely to be cited at least a few times. Information technologies to disseminate papers are likely behind this latter trend.