Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Author:

Williams A. Park12ORCID,Livneh Ben34ORCID,McKinnon Karen A.56ORCID,Hansen Winslow D.7ORCID,Mankin Justin S.28ORCID,Cook Benjamin I.29,Smerdon Jason E.2ORCID,Varuolo-Clarke Arianna M.210ORCID,Bjarke Nels R.4ORCID,Juang Caroline S.210ORCID,Lettenmaier Dennis P.1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095

2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10096

3. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309

4. Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309

5. Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095

6. Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095

7. Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545

8. Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755

9. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025

10. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027

Abstract

Significance How will increasing wildfire activity affect water resources in the water-limited western United States (WUS)? Among basins where >20% of forest burned, postfire streamflow is significantly enhanced by an average of approximately 30% for 6 y. Over 2015 to 2020, several large WUS basins experienced >10% of forest burned. Climate projections and an exponential forest fire response to climate-induced drying suggest the next 3 decades will see repeated years when WUS forest fire area exceeds that of 2020, which set a modern record for forest area burned. If so, entire regions will likely experience more streamflow than expected, potentially enhancing human access to water but posing hazard management challenges. Projections of water supply and runoff-related hazards must account for wildfire.

Funder

DOC | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Science Foundation

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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