Human pathogenic RNA viruses establish noncompeting lineages by occupying independent niches

Author:

Mutz Pascal1ORCID,Rochman Nash D.1ORCID,Wolf Yuri I.1ORCID,Faure Guilhem2ORCID,Zhang Feng23456ORCID,Koonin Eugene V.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD 20894

2. Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA 02142

3. HHMI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139

4. McGovern Institute for Brain Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139

5. Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139

6. Department of Biological Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139

Abstract

Significance Numerous pathogenic viruses are endemic in humans and cause a broad variety of diseases, but what is their potential for causing new pandemics? We show that most human pathogenic RNA viruses form multiple, cocirculating lineages with low turnover rates. These lineages appear to be largely noncompeting and occupy distinct epidemiological niches that are not regionally or seasonally defined, and their persistence appears to stem from limited outbreaks in small communities so that only a small fraction of the global susceptible population is infected at any time. However, due to globalization, interaction and competition between lineages might increase, potentially leading to increased diversification and pathogenicity. Thus, endemic viruses appear to merit global attention with respect to the prevention of future pandemics.

Funder

Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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