International treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects

Author:

Hoffman Steven J.1234ORCID,Baral Prativa15ORCID,Rogers Van Katwyk Susan1ORCID,Sritharan Lathika1ORCID,Hughsam Matthew1,Randhawa Harkanwal1ORCID,Lin Gigi1ORCID,Campbell Sophie1ORCID,Campus Brooke1,Dantas Maria1ORCID,Foroughian Neda1,Groux Gaëlle1,Gunn Elliot1ORCID,Guyatt Gordon4,Habibi Roojin12ORCID,Karabit Mina1ORCID,Karir Aneesh1ORCID,Kruja Krista1ORCID,Lavis John N.346ORCID,Lee Olivia1,Li Binxi1ORCID,Nagi Ranjana1,Naicker Kiyuri1,Røttingen John-Arne7ORCID,Sahar Nicola1ORCID,Srivastava Archita1ORCID,Tejpar Ali1ORCID,Tran Maxwell1ORCID,Zhang Yu-qing48,Zhou Qi4,Poirier Mathieu J. P.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Global Strategy Lab, Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, School of Global Health, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada

2. Osgoode Hall Law School, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada

3. McMaster Health Forum, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada

4. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4L8, Canada

5. Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; 21205,

6. Africa Centre for Evidence, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, 2092, South Africa

7. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Oslo, 8114, Norway

8. Ningbo Nottingham GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) Center, University of Nottingham, Ningbo, 315104, China

Abstract

There are over 250,000 international treaties that aim to foster global cooperation. But are treaties actually helpful for addressing global challenges? This systematic field-wide evidence synthesis of 224 primary studies and meta-analysis of the higher-quality 82 studies finds treaties have mostly failed to produce their intended effects. The only exceptions are treaties governing international trade and finance, which consistently produced intended effects. We also found evidence that impactful treaties achieve their effects through socialization and normative processes rather than longer-term legal processes and that enforcement mechanisms are the only modifiable treaty design choice with the potential to improve the effectiveness of treaties governing environmental, human rights, humanitarian, maritime, and security policy domains. This evidence synthesis raises doubts about the value of international treaties that neither regulate trade or finance nor contain enforcement mechanisms.

Funder

Norges Forskningsråd

Gouvernement du Canada | Canadian Institutes of Health Research

Ontario Ministry of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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