Demographic models predict end-Pleistocene arrival and rapid expansion of pre-agropastoralist humans in Cyprus

Author:

Bradshaw Corey J. A.12ORCID,Reepmeyer Christian234ORCID,Saltré Frédérik12ORCID,Agapiou Athos5ORCID,Kassianidou Vasiliki6,Demesticha Stella6ORCID,Zomeni Zomenia7ORCID,Polidorou Miltiadis6ORCID,Moutsiou Theodora46ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Global Ecology | Partuyarta Ngadluku Wardli Kuu, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia

2. Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia

3. Commission for Archaeology of Non-European Cultures, German Archaeological Institute, Bonn 53173, Germany

4. College of Arts, Society and Education, James Cook University Cairns, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia

5. Cyprus University of Technology, Lemesos 3036, Cyprus

6. Archaeological Research Unit, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1095, Cyprus

7. Geological Survey Department, Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development and the Environment of the Republic of Cyprus, Nicosia 1301, Cyprus

Abstract

The antiquity of human dispersal into Mediterranean islands and ensuing coastal adaptation have remained largely unexplored due to the prevailing assumption that the sea was a barrier to movement and that islands were hostile environments to early hunter-gatherers [J. F. Cherry, T. P. Leppard, J. Isl. Coast. Archaeol. 13 , 191–205 (2018), 10.1080/15564894.2016.1276489 ]. Using the latest archaeological data, hindcasted climate projections, and age-structured demographic models, we demonstrate evidence for early arrival (14,257 to 13,182 calendar years ago) to Cyprus and predicted that large groups of people (~1,000 to 1,375) arrived in 2 to 3 main events occurring within <100 y to ensure low extinction risk. These results indicate that the postglacial settlement of Cyprus involved only a few large-scale, organized events requiring advanced watercraft technology. Our spatially debiased and Signor–Lipps-corrected estimates indicate rapid settlement of the island within <200 y, and expansion to a median of 4,000 to 5,000 people (0.36 to 0.46 km −2 ) in <11 human generations (<300 y). Our results do not support the hypothesis of inaccessible and inhospitable islands in the Mediterranean for pre-agropastoralists, agreeing with analogous conclusions for other parts of the world [M. I. Bird et al. , Sci. Rep. 9 , 8220 (2019), 10.1038/s41598-019-42946-9 ]. Our results also highlight the need to revisit these questions in the Mediterranean and test their validity with new technologies, field methods, and data. By applying stochastic models to the Mediterranean region, we can place Cyprus and large islands in general as attractive and favorable destinations for paleolithic peoples.

Funder

European Union Research and Innovation Fund

Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

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