1. Departament of Economics, Fundação Getulio Vargas’ Sao Paulo School of Economics, Sao Paulo 01332-000, Brazil
2. Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro and Climate Policy Initiative, Rio de Janeiro 22451-900, Brazil
3. Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis 88040-900-SC, Brazil
4. Department of Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
5. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138