Spatial variation in the joint effect of extreme heat events and ozone on respiratory hospitalizations in California

Abstract

Extreme heat and ozone are co-occurring exposures that independently and synergistically increase the risk of respiratory disease. To our knowledge, no joint warning systems consider both risks; understanding their interactive effect can warrant use of comprehensive warning systems to reduce their burden. We examined heterogeneity in joint effects (on the additive scale) between heat and ozone at small geographical scales. A within-community matched design with a Bayesian hierarchical model was applied to study this association at the zip code level. Spatially varying relative risks due to interaction (RERI) were quantified to consider joint effects. Determinants of the spatial variability of effects were assessed using a random effects metaregression to consider the role of demographic/neighborhood characteristics that are known effect modifiers. A total of 817,354 unscheduled respiratory hospitalizations occurred in California from 2004 to 2013 in the May to September period. RERIs revealed no additive interaction when considering overall joint effects. However, when considering the zip code level, certain areas observed strong joint effects. A lower median income, higher percentage of unemployed residents, and exposure to other air pollutants within a zip code drove stronger joint effects; a higher percentage of commuters who walk/bicycle, a marker for neighborhood wealth, showed decreased effects. Results indicate the importance of going beyond average measures to consider spatial variation in the health burden of these exposures and predictors of joint effects. This information can be used to inform early warning systems that consider both heat and ozone to protect populations from these deleterious effects in identified areas.