Author:
Xu Lei,Stige Leif C.,Chan Kung-Sik,Zhou Jie,Yang Jun,Sang Shaowei,Wang Ming,Yang Zhicong,Yan Ziqiang,Jiang Tong,Lu Liang,Yue Yujuan,Liu Xiaobo,Lin Hualiang,Xu Jianguo,Liu Qiyong,Stenseth Nils Chr.
Abstract
Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005–2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics—years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
Publisher
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Cited by
164 articles.
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