Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Author:

Altman Jan,Ukhvatkina Olga N.,Omelko Alexander M.,Macek Martin,Plener Tomas,Pejcha Vit,Cerny Tomas,Petrik Petr,Srutek Miroslav,Song Jong-Suk,Zhmerenetsky Alexander A.,Vozmishcheva Anna S.,Krestov Pavel V.,Petrenko Tatyana Y.,Treydte Kerstin,Dolezal Jiri

Abstract

Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring–based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33–45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

Funder

Grant Agency of the Czech Republic

The Czech Academy of Sciences

1Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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