Divergent trends of open-surface water body area in the contiguous United States from 1984 to 2016

Abstract

The contiguous United States (CONUS), especially the West, faces challenges of increasing water stress and uncertain impacts of climate change. The historical information of surface water body distribution, variation, and multidecadal trends documented in remote-sensing images can aid in water-resource planning and management, yet is not well explored. Here, we detected open-surface water bodies in all Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images (∼370,000 images, >200 TB) of the CONUS and generated 30-meter annual water body frequency maps for 1984–2016. We analyzed the interannual variations and trends of year-long water body area, examined the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on water body area dynamics, and explored the relationships between water body area and land water storage (LWS). Generally, the western half of the United States is prone to water stress, with small water body area and large interannual variability. During 1984–2016, water-poor regions of the Southwest and Northwest had decreasing trends in water body area, while water-rich regions of the Southeast and far north Great Plains had increasing trends. These divergent trends, mainly driven by climate, enlarged water-resource gaps and are likely to continue according to climate projections. Water body area change is a good indicator of LWS dynamics in 58% of the CONUS. Following the 2012 prolonged drought, LWS in California and the southern Great Plains had a larger decrease than surface water body area, likely caused by massive groundwater withdrawals. Our findings provide valuable information for surface water-resource planning and management across the CONUS.