Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools
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Published:2022-09-08
Issue:37
Volume:119
Page:
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ISSN:0027-8424
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Container-title:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.
Author:
Endo (遠藤彰) Akira12345ORCID, Uchida (内田満夫) Mitsuo6ORCID, Liu (刘扬) Yang12, Atkins Katherine E.127ORCID, Kucharski Adam J.12, Funk Sebastian12ORCID, Abbas Kaja, van Zandvoort Kevin, Bosse Nikos I, Waterlow Naomi R, Tully Damien C, Meakin Sophie R, Quaife Matthew, Russell Timothy W, Jit Mark, Foss Anna M, Rosello Alicia, Quilty Billy J, Prem Kiesha, Knight Gwenan M, Abbott Sam, Klepac Petra, Brady Oliver, Pearson Carl A B, Medley Graham, Clifford Samuel, Jarvis Christopher I, Munday James D, Sandmann Frank G, Sun Fiona Yueqian, Jombart Thibaut, Hellewell Joel, Gibbs Hamish P, Barnard Rosanna C, Eggo Rosalind M, Gimma Amy, Williams Jack, Davies Nicholas G., Nightingale Emily S, Procter Simon R, Edmunds W John, Showering Alicia, Lowe Rachel, Sherratt Katharine, Villabona-Arenas C Julian, Simons David, Chan Yung-Wai Desmond, Flasche Stefan,
Affiliation:
1. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom 2. The Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom 3. The Alan Turing Institute, London NW1 2DB, United Kingdom 4. School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8523, Japan 5. Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Tokyo 102-0083, Japan 6. Graduate School of Medicine, Gunma University, Gunma 371-8511, Japan 7. Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4UX, United Kingdom
Abstract
The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emphasized the need for evidence-based strategies for the safe operation of schools during pandemics that balance infection risk with the society’s responsibility of allowing children to attend school. Due to limited empirical data, existing analyses assessing school-based interventions in pandemic situations often impose strong assumptions, for example, on the relationship between class size and transmission risk, which could bias the estimated effect of interventions, such as split classes and staggered attendance. To fill this gap in school outbreak studies, we parameterized an individual-based model that accounts for heterogeneous contact rates within and between classes and grades to a multischool outbreak data of influenza. We then simulated school outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases of ongoing threat (i.e., COVID-19) and potential threat (i.e., pandemic influenza) under a variety of interventions (changing class structures, symptom screening, regular testing, cohorting, and responsive class closures). Our results suggest that interventions changing class structures (e.g., reduced class sizes) may not be effective in reducing the risk of major school outbreaks upon introduction of a case and that other precautionary measures (e.g., screening and isolation) need to be employed. Class-level closures in response to detection of a case were also suggested to be effective in reducing the size of an outbreak.
Funder
Lnest Grant Taisho Pharmaceutical Award Japan Society for the Promotion for Science Grants-in-Aid The Nakajima Foundation Japan Society for the Promotion for Science Overseas Research Fellowship The Alan Turing Institute Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation National Institute for Health and Care Research European Commission UKRI | Medical Research Council EC | European Research Council Wellcome Trust
Publisher
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Subject
Multidisciplinary
Reference76 articles.
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