Large numbers cause magnitude neglect: The case of government expenditures

Author:

Boyce-Jacino Christina1,Peters Ellen2ORCID,Galvani Alison P.3,Chapman Gretchen B.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213

2. Center for Science Communication Research, School of Journalism and Communication, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403

3. Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510

Abstract

Four studies demonstrate that the public’s understanding of government budgetary expenditures is hampered by difficulty in representing large numerical magnitudes. Despite orders of magnitude difference between millions and billions, study participants struggle with the budgetary magnitudes of government programs. When numerical values are rescaled as smaller magnitudes (in the thousands or lower), lay understanding improves, as indicated by greater sensitivity to numerical ratios and more accurate rank ordering of expenses. A robust benefit of numerical rescaling is demonstrated across a variety of experimental designs, including policy relevant choices and incentive-compatible accuracy measures. This improved sensitivity ultimately impacts funding choices and public perception of respective budgets, indicating the importance of numerical cognition for good citizenship.

Funder

National Science Foundation

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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