Prediction of extreme weather using nonparametric regression approach with Fourier series estimators

Abstract

In Jepara, Central Java, Indonesia, significant correlations between high rainfall and wind speed impact multiple sectors including health, agriculture, and infrastructure. This study aims to predict the effects of extreme weather by employing nonparametric regression based on Fourier series estimators. Data from December 2023 to March 2024, sourced from NASA, were analyzed using sinus, cosinus, and combined Fourier functions to model the dynamic and seasonal fluctuations of weather variables. This approach allows for a flexible modeling of these previously undefined functional relationships. The analysis revealed that the combined function model was superior, achieving an optimal Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) score of 0,236498 with a Fourier coefficient K=3, indicating a well-fitted model. Moreover, this model exhibited a low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1,887, demonstrating high predictive accuracy. These findings not only affirm the efficacy of Fourier series in nonparametric regression for weather forecasting but also underscore its potential in informing public policy and bolstering disaster preparedness in Jepara and similar regions vulnerable to extreme weather conditions