Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: The longevity fan charts

Published:2010-02-01 Issue:1 Volume:47 Page:67-78
ISSN:0070-3370
Container-title:Demography
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Dowd Kevin¹,Blake David²,Cairns Andrew J.G.³⁴

Affiliation:

1. Pensions Institute, Cass Business School, City University, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, United Kingdom

2. Pensions Institute, Cass Business School, City University, United Kingdom

3. Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Edinburgh

4. Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, United Kingdom

Abstract

Abstract This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy projections. The article also illustrates how longevity fan charts can be used to stress-test longevity outcomes.

Publisher

Duke University Press

Subject

Demography

Link

http://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/47/1/67/909053/67dowd.pdf

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