Fuzzy SEIR Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19 Spread and Control

Abstract

The main objective of the paper is to construct an SEIR mathematical model by considering the transmission rate, death rate and recovery rate as fuzzy parameters since we assumed heterogeneity in the population. We have examined the domain of the solutions and discussed the uniqueness for the constructed SEIR model. The qualitative analysis has been carried out to know about the stability of COVID-19. Fuzzy basic reproduction number with respect to various virus loads have been calculated. We performed sensitivity analysis, which is crucial in identifying the controlling parameter which in turn help the government and other policy makers to implement rules for the prevention and control the spread. The numerical simulation which has been calculated using Homotopy Pertubation Method are illustrated graphically, shows the importance of getting vaccinated, which is important in controlling the spread of COVID-19.