Evaluating the Probability of Power Loss in Ship Electric Propulsion Systems Based on Bayesian Belief Networks

Abstract

AbstractThe development of smart and green ships has led to the wide use of electric propulsion systems, creating many safety problems. The ship electric propulsion system (SEPS) loses power frequently, creating significant risk in maritime transportation. This article proposed a probability evaluation method to assess SEPS power loss, based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs). The BBN structure of power loss in a SEPS is considered the main component causing SEPS disruption. The prior probability and conditional probability tables of the model were generated using statistical data and expert judgment. A case study was conducted to illustrate the proposed model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was used to identify several key indicators, including human factors, navigation conditions, winding failure, aging, and parameter setting. Compared with related research, the proposed method is rational and effective. As such, the method presented in this article provides a practical and flexible way to evaluate the probability of power loss in a SEPS. The model enables the safety manager to discover key influencing factors and components during ship operations, providing effective ways to reduce ship power loss.