Probabilistic 14C Age-Depth Models Aiding the Reconstruction of Holocene Paleoenvironmental Evolution of a Marshland from Southern Hungary

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper presents first chronological results for a Holocene marshland system from the southern part of the Danube-Tisza Interfluve. Radiocarbon (14C) ages were used to build age-depth models relying of probabilistic tools. Four models have been built: a linear one using dates gained via simple calibration, a P_Sequence model, fitting a polynomial function to calibrated dates; a Gamma_Sequence considering priori given and posterior accumulation rates have been constructed. As there was no significant difference between the mean values of individual models all seem suitable for establishing a reliable chronology despite differences in 95% CI ranges. While P_Sequence models underestimated SR, values calculated from the polynomial model were not significantly different from those of the G_Sequence. Based on multiproxy geochemical, sedimentological, paleoecological data the evolution of the system was reconstructed, covering a timespan of ca. 13,000 years starting from 12,000 BC and lasting until 1300 AD. Highest accumulation rates are dated to the Early Middle Ages from the 11th century. Several climate changes could have been identified which are present in other Hungarian and Western European records too, such as the 5b IRD event at ca. 5800 BC, a humid phase around 1600 BC, and a cool humid phase around the 6th century AD.