Astrobiologists are rational but not Bayesian

Author:

Bains WilliamORCID,Petkowski Janusz JurandORCID

Abstract

Abstract The search for biosignatures is likely to generate controversial results, with no single biosignature being clear proof of the presence of life. Bayesian statistical frameworks have been suggested as a tool for testing the effect that a new observation has on our belief in the presence of life on another planet. We test this approach here using the tentative discovery of phosphine on Venus as an example of a possible detection of a biosignature on an otherwise well-characterized planet. We report on a survey of astrobiologists' views on the likelihood of life on Enceladus, Europa, Mars, Titan and Venus before the announcement of the detection of phosphine in Venus' atmosphere (the Bayesian Prior Probability) and after the announcement (the Posterior Probability). Survey results show that respondents have a general view on the likelihood of life on any world, independent of the relative ranking of specific bodies, and that there is a distinct ‘fans of icy moons’ sub-community. The announcement of the potential presence of phosphine on Venus resulted in the community showing a small but significant increase in its confidence that there was life on Venus; nevertheless the community still considers Venus to be the least likely abode of life among the five targets considered, last after Titan. We derive a Bayesian formulation that explicitly includes both the uncertainty in the interpretation of the signal as well as uncertainty in whether phosphine on Venus could have been produced by life. We show that although the community has shown rational restraint about a highly unexpected and still tentative detection, their changing expectations do not fit a Bayesian model.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Space and Planetary Science,Physics and Astronomy (miscellaneous),Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Cited by 5 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Information gain as a tool for assessing biosignature missions;International Journal of Astrobiology;2023-08-04

2. Venus' Atmospheric Chemistry and Cloud Characteristics Are Compatible with Venusian Life;Astrobiology;2023-06-12

3. Solid grains ejected from terrestrial exoplanets as a probe of the abundance of life in the Milky Way;International Journal of Astrobiology;2023-03-22

4. The Wisdom of the Small Crowd: Myside Bias and Group Discussion;Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation;2023

5. Venusian phosphine: a ‘wow!’ signal in chemistry?;Phosphorus, Sulfur, and Silicon and the Related Elements;2021-11-08

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