Breakthrough results in astrobiology: is ‘high risk’ research needed?

Abstract

Abstract Astrobiology is a scientific endeavour involving great uncertainties. This could justify intellectual risk-taking associated with research that significantly deviates from the mainstream, to explore new avenues. However, little is known regarding the effect of such maverick endeavours. To better understand the need for more or less risk in astrobiology, we investigate to what extent high-risk / high-impact research contributes to breakthrough results in the discipline. We gathered a sample of the most impactful astrobiology papers of the past 20 years and explored the degree of risk of the research projects behind these papers via contact with the corresponding authors. We carried out interviews to explore how attitudes towards risk have played out in their work, and to ascertain their opinions on risk-taking in astrobiology. We show the majority of the selected breakthrough results derive from endeavours considered medium- or high-risk, risk is significantly correlated with impact, and most of the discussed projects adopt exploratory approaches. Overall, the researchers display a distribution of attitudes towards risk from the more cautious to the more audacious, and are divided on the need for more risk-taking in astrobiology. Our findings ultimately support the explicit implementation of a risk-balanced portfolio in astrobiology.