Self-replicating probes are imminent – implications for SETI

Abstract

AbstractIn the early 1980s, the Sagan-Tipler debate raged regarding the interpretation of the Fermi paradox but no clear winner emerged. Sagan favoured the existence of ETI on the basis of the Copernican principle and Tipler favoured the non-existence of ETI on the basis of the Occam's razor principle. Tipler's stance was an expansion of the similar but earlier Hart declaration. However, crucial to the Tipler argument was the role played by self-replicating interstellar robot probes. Any technologically capable species will develop self-replication technology as the most economical means of exploring space and the Galaxy as a whole with minimal investment. There is no evidence of such probes in our solar system including the asteroid belt, ergo, ETI do not exist. This is a powerful and cogent argument. Counter-arguments have been weak including Sagan's sociological explanations. We present a Copernican argument that ETI do not exist – humans are developing self-replication technology today. We are developing the ability to 3D print entire robotic machines from extraterrestrial resources including electric motors and electronics as part of a general in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) capability. We have 3D-printed electric motors which can be potentially leveraged from extraterrestrial material that should be available in every star system. From a similar range of materials, we have identified a means to 3D print neural network circuitry. From our industrial ecology, self-replicating machines and indeed universal constructors are feasible. We describe in some detail how a self-replicating interstellar spacecraft may be constricted from asteroidal resources. We describe technological signatures of the processing of asteroidal material (which is expected to be common to most star systems), and the excess production of certain types of clay and other detritus materials. Self-replication technology is under development and imminent – if humans are pursuing self-replication technology, then by the Copernican principle, so would any technologically savvy species elsewhere. There is no evidence that they have.