STOCK RETURNS, TERM STRUCTURE, INFLATION, AND REAL ACTIVITY: AN INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

This paper analyzes the empirical interdependecies among asset returns, real activity, and inflation from multicountry and international points of view. We find that innovations in nominal stock returns are not significantly related to inflation or real activity, that the U.S. term structure of interest rates predicts both domestic and foreign inflation rates and domestic future real activity, and that innovations in inflation do not significantly affect real activity. An interpretation of the dynamics and some policy implications of the results are provided.