Author:
Woolhouse M. E. J.,Chandiwana S. K.
Abstract
The prevalence ofSchistosoma mansoniinfections ofBiomphalaria pfeifferishows seasonal variation. Field data from Zimbabwe show annual ranges from 0 to 7%. In this paper a mathematical model ofB. pfeifferipopulation dynamics andS. mansoniepidemiology is used as a framework for analysis of these patterns. Snail fecundity is a function of snail age and of temperature, and is apparently affected by other seasonal factors. The pre-patent period is dependent on temperature. Infection affects snail fecundity and mortality. Parameter values are derived from previous field and laboratory studies. The force-of-infection is estimated from the analysis of size-prevalence data. Using observed temperatures, model output agrees well with field data on snail abundance and prevalence of infection over a 14-month period. Seasonal variation in prevalence largely reflects variation in the pre-patent period and in snail population age structure. The possible role of seasonality in the force-of-infection is discussed. Prevalence patterns are not greatly affected by year-to-year differences in temperature. Significant seasonal variation in snail–man transmission rates is expected.
Publisher
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Subject
Infectious Diseases,Animal Science and Zoology,Parasitology
Cited by
10 articles.
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