Epidemic models featuring behaviour change

Abstract

This paper considers a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed population whose members are in either a high-risk or a low-risk activity group. Further, members of the high-risk group may change their behaviour by entering the low-risk group. Both stochastic and deterministic models are examined. A limiting model, appropriate when there is a large number of initially susceptible individuals, is used to provide a threshold analysis. The epidemic is compared to a single group epidemic, and to suitably parametrised two-group epidemics, using a coupling method. The total size distribution and effects of changing the behaviour change rate are considered.