Interpolation Between AIS Reports: Probabilistic Inferences Over Vessel Path Space

Abstract

We present a method for addressing probabilistic queries about the location of a vessel in the time interval between two position reports, such as from the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The heart of the method is the random generation of physically feasible paths connecting the two reports. The method empowers operators to answer probabilistic questions about any characteristic of the unknown true path. For illustrative purposes, we demonstrate the use of the method to identify which of several vessels is the most likely perpetrator, in a fictitious scenario in which illegal dumping of waste matter has taken place.