Predictors of suicide attempt in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder: an exploratory study with machine learning analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background Patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) are at increased risk for suicide attempt (SA) compared to the general population. However, the significant risk factors for SA in this population remains unclear – whether these factors are associated with the disorder itself or related to extrinsic factors, such as comorbidities and sociodemographic variables. This study aimed to identify predictors of SA in OCD patients using a machine learning algorithm. Methods A total of 959 outpatients with OCD were included. An elastic net model was performed to recognize the predictors of SA among OCD patients, using clinical and sociodemographic variables. Results The prevalence of SA in our sample was 10.8%. Relevant predictors of SA founded by the elastic net algorithm were the following: previous suicide planning, previous suicide thoughts, lifetime depressive episode, and intermittent explosive disorder. Our elastic net model had a good performance and found an area under the curve of 0.95. Conclusions This is the first study to evaluate risk factors for SA among OCD patients using machine learning algorithms. Our results demonstrate an accurate risk algorithm can be created using clinical and sociodemographic variables. All aspects of suicidal phenomena need to be carefully investigated by clinicians in every evaluation of OCD patients. Particular attention should be given to comorbidity with depressive symptoms.