Climate-change-related long-term historical and projected changes to spring barley phenological development in Lithuania

Abstract

AbstractThough the number of climate-change-related agro-phenological investigations are growing rapidly, the attention paid to spring crops has been much less than to winter ones. The objective of the current study was to investigate long-term temporal and spatial trends of spring barley phenology and to project changes in the timing and duration of different phenological phases during the current century. Higher temperatures significantly affected the potential scheduling of agricultural practices, accelerating the occurrence of sowing and emergence dates. Historical trends in harvest dates of spring barley showed a slight delay. These changes resulted in the extension of the total vegetative period of spring barley by >12 days over the period investigated (1961–2015). Since Lithuania is situated on the Baltic Sea, an increase in temperature along with an increase in distance from the sea was characteristic over the last 55 years. Projected changes in the occurrence of phenological phases of spring barley differ significantly from analysed historical changes and advancement of all phenological phases have been projected according to both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Shortening of the total vegetative period by 5 days is foreseen for the far (2071–2100) future according to the pessimistic (RCP 8.5) climate change scenario.