Flood frequency estimation in Scotland using index floods and regional growth curves

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe index flood/regional growth curve method is the most commonly used procedure for estimating a design flood at an ungauged site in the United Kingdom when only the instantaneous peak discharge is required. This paper summarises recent work in Scotland in which the authors have refined the equations for estimating the index flood from the physical characteristics of the drainage basin and have proposed new methods for classifying basins to increase the hydrological homogeneity of the regions on which the growth curves are based. A new algorithm for estimating regional growth curves is reported which allows for correlation between flood magnitude at different sites. Simulation experiments are described which highlight the consequences of the data failing to meet the assumptions of the models used.