Expert Systems in Medicne:Possible Future Effects

Abstract

It should be pointed out that during the interviews most of the experts had positive expectations of ESM. The developers are more generally enthusiastic than the prospective users and affected parties who, especially in respect of the diffusion of ESM into practical application, only show a limited optimism.However, the representatives of the medical profession and the health insurance industry were convinced that ESM might contribute to cost-neutral increases of quality in out-patient and in-patient medicine. But we also understood them to say that they consider other developments in medicine to be overriding, for example, a tendency of general medicine towards a more family-oriented medicine and a reduced emphasis on technology-oriented medicine. In respect of the conception shared by developers as well as potential users that over-enthusiastic expectations should rather be restrained, we consider such a balanced expectation of positive effects of ESM to be adequate to the actual knowledge of the subject.