‘Catch-up’ numbers

Abstract

It never ceases to amaze me how often an apparently innocent-looking problem can lead on to something altogether more deep and interesting. As an example of this, I had recently set one of my Lower Sixth classes, as part of a statistics revision lesson, the task of devising some original questions on probability when the following problem emerged:‘A person tosses a fair coin six times. Given that 4 heads and 2 tails result, what is the probability that the proportion of tails obtained at each point before the last toss is less than one third?’