Do Conspiracies Tend to Fail? Philosophical Reflections on a Poorly Supported Academic Meme

Author:

Hagen KurtisORCID

Abstract

Abstract Critics of conspiracy theories often charge that such theories are implausible because conspiracies of the kind they allege tend to fail. Thus, according to these critics, conspiracy theories that have been around for a while would have been, in all likelihood, already exposed if they had been real. So, they reason, they probably are not. In this article, I maintain that the arguments in support of this view are unconvincing. I do so by examining a list of four sources recently cited in support of the claim that conspiracies tend to fail. I pay special attention to two of these sources, an article by Brian Keeley, and, especially, an article by David Grimes, which is perhaps the single “best” article in support of the idea that conspiracies tend to fail. That is, it offers the most explicit and elaborate attempt to establish this view. Further, that article has garnered significant (uncritical) attention in the mainstream press. I argue that Grimes's argument does not succeed, that the common assertion that conspiracies tend to fail remains poorly supported, and that there are good reasons to think that at least some types of conspiracies do not tend to fail.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

History and Philosophy of Science

Reference42 articles.

1. Living with the Conspiracy

2. Berezow, A. (2016). ‘Math Study Shows Conspiracies ‘Prone to Unravelling’.’ BBC (26 January 2016). https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35411684.

3. Joining the Conspiracy;Basham;Argumenta,2018

4. Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Cures*

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