Predicting childhood ADHD-linked symptoms from prenatal and perinatal data in the ABCD cohort

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the capacity of pre/perinatal factors to predict attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms in childhood. It also explores whether predictive accuracy of a pre/perinatal model varies for different groups in the population. We used the ABCD (Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development) cohort from the United States (N = 9975). Pre/perinatal information and the Child Behavior Checklist were reported by the parent when the child was aged 9–10. Forty variables which are generally known by birth were input as potential predictors including maternal substance-use, obstetric complications and child demographics. Elastic net regression with 5-fold validation was performed, and subsequently stratified by sex, race/ethnicity, household income and parental psychopathology. Seventeen pre/perinatal variables were identified as robust predictors of ADHD symptoms in this cohort. The model explained just 8.13% of the variance in ADHD symptoms on average (95% CI = 5.6%–11.5%). Predictive accuracy of the model varied significantly by subgroup, particularly across income groups, and several pre/perinatal factors appeared to be sex-specific. Results suggest we may be able to predict childhood ADHD symptoms with modest accuracy from birth. This study needs to be replicated using prospectively measured pre/perinatal data.