INCORPORATING OPERATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS AND START-UP COSTS IN OPTION-BASED VALUATION OF POWER GENERATION CAPACITY

Abstract

We describe a stochastic dynamic programming approach for “real option”-based valuation of electricity generation capacity incorporating operational constraints and start-up costs. Stochastic prices of electricity and fuel are represented by recombining multinomial trees. Generators are modeled as a strip of cross-commodity call options with a delay and a cost imposed on each option exercise. We illustrate implications of operational characteristics on the valuation of generation assets under different modeling assumptions about the energy commodity prices. We find that the impacts of operational constraints on real asset valuation are dependent on both the model specification and the nature of operating characteristics.