Driving with markov-programming

Author:

de Leve G.,Weeda P. J.

Abstract

Let us consider the following problem.A motorist has decided to effect an accident insurance under the following conditions. The insurance runs for one year. The premium for the first year amounts E0. If no damages have been claimed during i successive years, i = 1, 2 or 3 the premium is reduced to Ei. After four years of damagefree driving no further premium reduction is granted, so the premium remains E3. The premium is due on the first day of the year. The own risk amounts a0.The number of accidents of our motorist during a time period T is assumed to be Poisson distributed with parameter λT. The extent of the damage has distribution function F(s) with finite mean and variance.The problem of our motorist will be to decide whether to claim a damage or not. He will have to develop a strategy that specifies his decisions in every possible situation. His strategy will be called optimal if it minimizes the expected costs in the long run.We may expect that in view of the premium reduction, it will be unprofitable to claim damages which are not much larger than a0. Once a damage is claimed it will be profitable to claim all following damages that exceed a0 during the remaining part of the year.Hence his decisions will also depend on the time of the year and the premium paid at the beginning of that year. So we distinguish between four types of years, for each premium one.

Publisher

Cambridge University Press (CUP)

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Finance,Accounting

Cited by 7 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Estratégia ótima para declarar perdas no mercado de seguros de automóveis;Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo);2017-03

2. Modeling the “Pseudodeductible” in Insurance Claims Decisions;Management Science;2006-08

3. Operational research and insurance;European Journal of Operational Research;1991-11

4. Operational research and insurance;European Journal of Operational Research;1991-05

5. Optimal claim behaviour for third-party liability insurances or to claim or not to claim: that is the question;Insurance: Mathematics and Economics;1990-03

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