Economic growth, energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions in India: 1990-2020

Abstract

This article investigates the linkages between economic growth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in India by analysing the structure of production and consumption in the Indian economy. We begin with an examination of the consumption pattern of six different income classes, three each in urban and rural India, and then estimate the direct and indirect energy and CO2 emission coefficients for supporting production in various sectors. This provides us with a basis for estimating the energy and emission content of the consumption baskets of the different income classes in India. CO2 emissions are projected to increase from 0.18 tonnes of carbon (tC) per capita in 1990 to about 0.62 tC per capita in 2020 under the reference scenario which corresponds to a GDP growth rate of 5.5% per annum. We then analyse scenarios of technology improvement in which emissions are reduced to 0.47 tC per capita in 2020. Our projection methodology takes into account the changes in aggregate consumpti on pattern due to mobility of the population across the income classes and from rural to urban areas, besides the increase in per capita consumption of all classes.