TESTING FOR HOMOGENEOUS THRESHOLDS IN THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODELS

Abstract

This paper develops a test for homogeneity of the threshold parameter in threshold regression models. The test has a natural interpretation from time series perspectives and can also be applied to test for additional change points in the structural break models. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is derived, and the finite sample properties are studied in Monte Carlo simulations. We apply the new test to the tipping point problem studied by Card, Mas, and Rothstein (2008, Quarterly Journal of Economics 123, 177–218) and statistically justify that the location of the tipping point varies across tracts.